Just get into the playoffs so I can wear my playoff poncho and swag chain!!! Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. The exercise continues this offseason. I dont think that theyll ever solve the hangover effect in the sense of substantially reducing the gap. ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? We also get one of my favorite spring time treasures Projection systems releasing their standings and playoff predictions for the season. I do think some of this projection is because Yoan Moncada was a mess but I dont think he will be that bad again. Im inclined to agree that theres probably no way to truly solve the hangover, but I think theres also almost certainly a type of player profile that could be identified who would be less liable to suffer so much on the road. Both models also assign less than a 2% chance to the Rockies, Orioles, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Pirates making the playoffs. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. One can see here the strong position the Orioles are in if they chose to be aggressive this offseason; theyve had enough happy player development surprises that they can legitimately say they start the offseason in the same galaxy as the rest of the division.
Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him.
Another large difference in playoff odds can be seen with the New York Yankees. Would half their analysis department possess Ph.D.s in physics? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Combined with other changes in the playing time assumptions, Boston basically catches up to the division. Or at least make the last two not an absolute dumpster fire. The White Sox remain the best team in the AL Central, and adding AJ Pollock balances out losing Craig Kimbrel (traded for Pollock) and Garrett Crochet (impending Tommy John surgery). The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in the game. They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. by Retrosheet. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. edit: damnit, I screwed it up. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Both systems love the Mets, as most models do because, honestly, they look great on paper. Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. So there you go, if projection models are your thing, thats all good news from two of the biggest sites in the baseball community. Number in parentheses is where each team finished in last week's rankings. It was a sight to see. It seems nearly certain that Marcell Ozuna will return, but from a baseball standpoint, he didnt hit at all early last year. Now, I did say there was one major exception, and thats in-season roster changes. A community dedicated to discussing the San Diego Padres. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. The Braves have short-term and long-terms questions in their rotation that are still waiting to be answered.
ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesnt feel like it has the same upside.
He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. 2022 Playoff Odds, . Below is the full schedule, as you can watch all 380 . Two of the more popular and respected projection systems - Pecota and FanGraphs - have already released their win totals for each team. Something went wrong. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen THE. For these Opening Day power rankings, Ive used each teams projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Read the rest of this entry . Help Support FanGraphs. I think its more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, Id choose the latter. It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will.
The Angels are a lackluster team with a lackluster offseason, so they ended up with a lackluster projection.
by Retrosheet. Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game.
Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. Theyve assembled a surprisingly competent starting rotation given their home park, but the supporting cast for whichever stars are on their roster be it Bryant, Story, or Nolan Arenado just hasnt been good enough. That is the case here, as the MAE of 8.3 wins is above the ZiPS historical average of 7.5 (not including 2020). Still, the 2022 version of this AL powerhouse looks a little less potent than previous editions. Any team led by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball.
I imagine most fans would likely say the Rangers (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien) or the Padres (Fernando Tatis Jr. and mostly Jake Cronenworth). If the last 2 years are any indication, we'd need to bank on another 60 game season, God damn they are more optimistic than me.
I dont see them trading for Murphy. Prior to signing Ramrez, Cleveland had been inconceivably passive during the offseason, signing just a single free agent to a new major league contract (Luke Maile). Bold of you to assume deGrom will be healthy in October. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. If the goal was to sign him to an extension no matter what, then they should have signed some players to play with him this year and next, while his salary is still relatively low. The Astros have a solid argument to be considered among the teams a tier above, especially after their third World Series appearance in the last five seasons.
2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: Entering the 2022 NFL season, he is 427-344 all-time on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.
Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a.
They did bring back DeScalfani and Alex Wood and Logan Webb is a stud. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade. Even if the Nationals struggle to stay out of the NL East basement, theyll at least be entertaining to watch. They also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve a bullpen that is already sneaky good. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location,
The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here. First, we take the three most important components of a team their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-) and weight and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. Visit ESPN for the box score of the Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks NBA basketball game on January 17, 2023 But the same question that has hung over their recent run of success remains for this squad: will they score enough runs to support their excellent pitching staff? The Dodgers have a lot of work to do this offseason, but they started off as an absurdly good team, leaving them at the top of the projected division. Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight.
Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Completely bonkers if the payroll stays there, but since it ranged from $136M-$157M from 2017-2019 Id say its a safe bet to increase. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. And thats where all these models are built. Instead, they tore everything down to the studs. A daily roundup of Atlanta Braves news from Battery Power, By submitting your email, you agree to our, FanGraphs and PECOTA projected standings for the 2022 season are here, Adam Duvall headed to the Red Sox on a one-year deal. So how does it work? Every Wednesday until November 30th: Daimon Latino Nights. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. by Handedness. Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lpez, and Trevor Rogers are as good a 1-2-3 as youll find in the majors, and Jess Luzardo has suddenly rediscovered his fastball velocity this spring. Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change.
Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly.
and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Theyll get Ronald Acua Jr. and Mike Soroka back from their respective injuries sometime during the season; Marcell Ozuna will return to the roster as well. You may not think it significant but for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is. These are based upon the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which use a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer and our manually maintained playing time estimates.
Loosely, money spent outside of planned raises and inexpensive (think 2yrs, $13M or 1yr, $4.5M) roster hole plugging that every team does. Bringing in Nelson Cruz to be a veteran mentor was a nice touch, and Stephen Strasburg could potentially return from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery mid-season. Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but thats for a 39-year-old Freeman, so lets can the epilogue for now. Until he actually puts his pen to the dotted line, anything can happen, and until then, first base is the Braves biggest weakness. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. I dont think they expected to be able to sign him to an extension. Their presence should give fans in Arizona something to be optimistic about, even as the current roster flounders. Projected lineup. With some luck, they could get 16 WAR from Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani alone and have enough go right to fall into the divisional race, but its not the most likely outcome. Another 15 wins to add to this projection seem pretty straightforward. Cardinals fans will have plenty to celebrate whether or not the team makes the playoffs; Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols have already announced that 2022 will be their last year in the majors, and Wainwright has heavily hinted at joining them in retirement after the season. That doesnt mean we should bank on it; Oakland has lost a lot of people who are really good at playing baseball. by Handedness, The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, The Angels Believe In the Youth in Their Outfield. The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. by Handedness, Looking Back at the 2022 ZiPS Projections, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. Seagers health record hasnt been perfect, but it hasnt been Eric Davis-like, either, and he still has a couple of seasons left of his 20s.
Semien is a few years older, but after rightfully being a big part of the American League MVP race in two of the last three seasons, he starts off on a pretty high pedestal.
I feel 81 wins is a pretty reasonable expectation for them. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. Now, hes the big loss, but Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter matter, too, though it isnt likely that Carpenter will match his 2022 performance anyway. OK, not really. The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). If I were a Rockies fan, Id have voted to legalize psychedelic mushrooms, too.
The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. 2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves.
ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings. Heres their model for the 2022 Atlanta Braves: As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Where the Chisox lie, your kind of significance starts at $40. The Cubs are making noise about spending this winter, but they need a couple of starting pitchers, a first baseman, most of a bullpen, and a DH to really threaten the top two teams in the Central. The Diamondbacks lost 110 games in a year where anything that could go wrong did. The Rays are another possible answer, though. Bryson Stott (No. Skiing in the Rockies sucks this time of year, Fangraphs' Newly Updated International Prospect Rankings, FanGraphs projects struggles for Giants in 2022 season. The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below: Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Ralph Garza Jr. and the Sometimes Sidearmers, Beat the Shift Podcast Catcher Episode w/ Vlad Sedler, Starting Pitchers Arent Leaning On Their Best Pitches. ZiPS then automatically fills in playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings.
This projection does include the addition of Matt Olson but it should pointed out, the Braves arent done with off-season moves. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The Angels have the benefit here of having most of the teams performance tied up in just a few players, with nobody crucial headed to free agency. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. At 12:53 a.m. Sunday, officers went to the 900 block of Greensboro Court on a report of a . Earlier this offseason, we released our team expected win totals and playoff odds for the 2022 season.
Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement.
That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. For just this run of rankings, Ive used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. Lets look. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors ZiPS gave Cleveland the most prospects in its top 100 and is a fan of the Royals Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto, and MJ Melendez, so both could have much more sunny prognostications in another year or two. Despite all that young talent, it was rather confusing to see them refuse to even try to improve their roster from the outside.
Those additions might not have been as flashy as adding Carlos Correa or trading for Olson as some Yankees fans dreamed about, but it does give them a solid infield that should be vastly improved defensively. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. If you were looking for ZiPS to provide some clarity, I hope you havent been waiting with bated breath too long! Uras projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. The departures of Mark Canha and Starling Marte are a real setback for Oakland, but the lineups core remains intact. That thins out their pitching staff significantly; theyre now relying on a 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to lead the rotation and are counting on the health of Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks after that trio combined for 29 appearances over the last two years.
Even being average for 2 months wouldve kept us in it.
Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. The exercise continues this offseason. The loss of Correa at shortstop looms large. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. I would be surprised if the best middle infield came from a team other than these three. To support those two generational talents, the Angels focused on shoring up their biggest weakness during this stretch of frustration: their pitching staff. Things are definitely looking up in Miami, which is probably just a step ahead of the teams in the tier below. There have been very few things to celebrate in Baltimore recently Trey Mancinis comeback and Cedric Mullins 3030 season being the most recent but theyll finally start to see the foundations of their rebuild make it to the majors this year. Obviously ideally they would be generally good players who can thrive in Denver and just fall off less elsewhere. Which is why I doubt the $10M number.
In five years, he could be their Carlos Correa. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. You can read more about how ATC works in this introductory article. And that means its time for one last important sabermetric ritual: the final ZiPS projected standings that will surely come back and haunt me multiple times as the season progresses.
Sign up for the The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted ZiPS Projections 2023 2022 AL For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. He's a switch-hitter with a hit/power combination that would probably make him an All-Star anywhere on the diamond, while also being a plus defender at the most demanding . The Rangers have stopped digging the hole, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out. The problem is, hitting home runs has never really been the Rockies problem.
Relative to the Yankees, the big losses for the Rays (Corey Kluber, Kevin Kiermaier) and Jays (pretty much just Ross Stripling) are relatively mild. The five teams in this tier have a really wide range of possible outcomes based on a variety of factors. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven. Read the rest of this entry . Reports are coming in the Cleveland has extended JRam. It's supposed to be, "fool me once shame on you, fool me can't get fooled again." _Thot_Patrol The Marlins find themselves on even footing with the teams in this tier behind the strength of their exciting pitching staff. You can show your support to Fangraphs by becoming a member! You can also support monthly for just $3. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. Posey retired, Kevin Gausman left to the Blue Jays, and Kris Bryant is a free agent and likely not going back to the Giants. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Dansby Swanson is a big loss, but when you see the projection for Vaughn Grissom, youll understand why the Braves dominate this very preliminary run of the NL East standings. Entrance fee: 25 Lei.
Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Too many high impact FAs on the board. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Speaking of the Red Sox, Im not a fan of how much playing time theyre likely to give to Jackie Bradley Jr., but the Story signing, with the resulting shuffle of Enrique Hernndez to center field, resolved at least one of their outfield issues. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. Theres no trick here; Im not going to say, Ha ha! He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray.
Reservations are proceeded at phone no. Justin Verlander is back and throwing 95 mph, but hes also 39 years old, coming off Tommy John surgery, and has tossed just six innings since 2019. Luckily, New York brought in plenty of help during the offseason, spending at record levels to sign Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar and also trading for Chris Bassitt. Theres a reason that Alex Anthopoulos had to remake the outfield on the fly last summer, which is something that you ideally dont have to do again in 2022. Its insane. The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. I still wish Chicago had outbid the Rays for Nelson Cruzs services. These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the leagues pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. Welcome back, baseball! You can divide Washingtons offense into two distinct parts. The exercise continues this offseason. They just need to win 62.2% at home and just 48% on the road, the way that they did in 2007 and 2009, in order to be a playoff team. Next up: The start of the team-by-team projections, beginning with the Boston Red Sox. by Handedness. An 85% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the World Series at this point is high praise. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. The methodology Im using here isnt identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something!
Hes about half of their payroll now. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The offensive holes arent so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). . At least its steamed crab season! Taking home runs away in Baltimore seems like a cruel reward for fans who have been dragged through three 100-loss seasons in the last four years. I cant say Im displeased to see Luis Uras at the top of the batter list Ive long been fascinated by him and even featured him on my breakout list last year but Id definitely be uneasy about having him as my teams best player. Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. It would be moderately stunning if they spent money of any significance. Yup! You start with two easy Hall of Famers and then about 40 seconds later, youre reassembling the late-80s Braves. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+.